GLIMPSE- Are we going to run out of food?
A GLIMPSE™ of the 7 barriers farmers face in feeding the world
Whether at a conference or reception, on a plane or in an elevator, many of us in food or agriculture have been asked the following question: How are we going to feed the rising population that is expected to exceed 9 billion people by 2050? Clearly it is of growing concern to all of us. This population is expected to demand more meat, milk and eggs, especially because of the growth of the middle class (particularly in China and India), which typically consumes more animal protein. Research conducted by Alltech, which was recently repeated, arrived at the GLIMPSE™ framework to help those involved in farming, food and agribusiness to understand the seven words that summarize the challenges that, if overcome, will allow us to meet this demand.
How will agribusiness rise to the challenge and provide enough food for the rapidly growing population without completely destroying the planet’s resources? What are the barriers it faces?
For the first time, perhaps in history, the biggest challenges facing the food chain involve not just productivity, but the environmental impact of production and the social impact of both production processes and the food itself. A paper published by Alltech five years ago and is about to be republished, uses the acronym GLIMPSE™ to summarize the seven factors (Government, Losses, Infrastructure, Markets, People, Science and Innovation, and Environment) that limit farmers from producing the food we will need.
A new in-depth study (Sodre et al) has been conducted with three distinct parts: 59 interviews with experts; a survey with 527 industry leaders; and an analysis of 1.3 million websites using different social media applications to determine public perception and to validate the initial research, which will determine if the same factors originally identified in the GLIMPSE framework still represent the major concerns and barriers for the agribusiness sector.
Initially, interviews were conducted in a manner that solicited spontaneous responses through open-ended questions. Using a grounded theory approach, responses were analyzed and distilled down to 22 major challenges. This still seemed a bit overwhelming, so the challenges were presented in a survey to 527 industry experts.
This was the second stage of the project, in which respondents were asked to rank order the five challenges they believed to be the biggest barriers according to importance. The survey allowed for the opportunity to include any challenges perceived that were not listed, to make sure everyone’s voice was heard and all alternative suggestions were given consideration.
Analyzing the content of 1.3 Million Websites
The final stage of information gathering was a thorough social media analysis. Social media is the ideal medium with which to collect massive amounts of information relating to people’s interests, perceptions and concerns. Analyzing content from 1.3million websites, including Twitter, Facebook, blogs, forums and other social media platforms over the course of a three-year period (2012–2015), it was possible to use primary keywords such as “food production,” “agribusiness,” “agricultural production” and “agriculture” combined with auxiliary keywords such as “issue,” “barrier” or “opportunity.”
This was not done as part of the original GLIMPSE™ paper. In fact, the technology didn’t exist at the time to do this type of analysis, so it was interesting to see if public interpretation of these issues paralleled that of the industry experts. It did. Cluster images and word clouds represent the social media analysis as shown below. The 1.3 million websites review was conducted for the period of July 2012 through July 2015, unless otherwise noted.
Re-evaluating GLIMPSE
The goal of GLIMPSE was to truly capture the entire food and agribusiness industry and gain global insights. The first phase consisted of interviews with 59 members of the agribusiness community who represented 23 different countries. Examples of interviewees include: the former United States secretary of agriculture; the former European Union commissioner for health and food safety; professors from Harvard University, Purdue University, University of California, Davis and University College Dublin; agribusiness partners from the top four global strategic consulting firms; managing directors of investment and development in England, Brazil and South Africa; various C-suite executives of numerous agribusinesses from countries such as Canada, Peru, India and China; and representatives from national associations such as the National Turkey Federation (U.S.), American Society of Animal Science and others.
The original GLIMPSE™ was the most downloaded article of the International Food and Agribusiness Management Review (IFAMR) journal, so it was important to see if those identified factors were still relevant. As it turns out, they were. The framework was adjusted to contain the issue of human capital and to merge the issues of government and policies, but this allows for the same acronym to be used.
The addition of the factor “People” made it possible to address the growing concern that agribusiness faces when finding qualified employees or an educated workforce and illustrates that new and young talent is not attracted to the industry to the degree it once was. Other adjustments included expanding “M” to incorporate consumer interactions, preferences, expectations and requirements. The information flow between consumers and participants in the food chain is stronger and more public than in the past. The “L” now simply represents losses. This may seem like a small change, but it represents the massive amounts of food loss that occurs at the consumption level. The last minor adjustment made was to include investments alongside infrastructure under “I.” This is because fixed or financial capital is needed for improvements in production. It can also represent the growing concern about what the future of agricultural investments may look like and any other financial challenges associated with agribusiness.
The original GLIMPSE™ was published by IFAMR, and the current GLIMPSE paper is under review in the same journal for publication this year.
GLIMPSE represents an easy acronym for those concerned about the future of food production on our planet and encapsulates the serious and complex issues farmers face in a few key phrases while helping governments, non-governmental organizations, agencies and even the general public to understand what needs to be done to change the way we will feed the planet.
The original publication of GLIMPSE can be found on IFAMA’s website.
An abridged version is also available that demonstrates how agribusinesses can use GLIMPSE to find real world solutions.
